Slumdog Chrismatica™

"And the Oscar goes to..."

And here we are… 2009, celebrating another Oscar with a new President. Can you smell the change? Politically, there may be change in the air, but The Academy is extremely predictable.

Using my proprietary mathematical formula I’ve humbly dubbed Chrismatica™, my predictions for the 2008 Oscars are as follows—remember, if you bet and win, you split the cash with me. If you lose, well, you shouldn’t have been betting in the first place.

Performance by an actor in a leading role
Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor" –Did anyone see this?
Frank Langella in "Frost/Nixon" – “I’m not a crook!” You’re not a winner, either.
Brad Pitt in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" – Still too pretty.
Sean Penn in "Milk" – My personal choice, but his dog is still alive.
Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler" – Hollywood loves a comeback… and his dog just died.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Josh Brolin in "Milk" – Great performance… but he’s still alive.
Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder" – most deserving… again, still living.
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt" – best actor of his generation… currently breathing
Michael Shannon in "Revolutionary Road" – Not sure who he is, but I hear he's still alive.
Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight" – “He’s dead, Jim.” And we have a winner.

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married" – She’s pretty. Pretty doesn’t win.
Angelina Jolie in "Changeling” – Stop adopting kids, already.
Melissa Leo in "Frozen River" – Who?
Meryl Streep in "Doubt" – As always, brilliant… but fully clothed.
Kate Winslet in "The Reader" – Two key words: “Naked” and “Holocaust”

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Amy Adams in "Doubt" – I like her… she was fun in Enchanted. Not so fun here…
Penélope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" – She really should win
Viola Davis in "Doubt" – Who?
Taraji P. Henson in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" – Again, Who?
Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler" – Stripper! In Hollywood that is considered acting…

Achievement in directing
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" David Fincher – Nice special effects…
"Frost/Nixon" Ron Howard – Opie already has an Oscar
"Milk" Gus Van Sant – Great movie… but too gay (even for Hollywood)
"The Reader" Stephen Daldry – Directing a Holocaust film? I can smell the desperation…
"Slumdog Millionaire" Danny Boyle – Shot on the streets of Mumbai, used local kids, fought to keep production going, did an amazing job… it all adds up (plus, he won the DGA, which puts this into a lock).

Best motion picture of the year
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" Really? Really? Really…
"Frost/Nixon" Did anyone see this?
"Milk" Too gay.
"The Reader" Fewer people saw this than Frost/Nixon.
"Slumdog Millionaire" Bank on it: Almost went to video—it’s the little film that could. Also, if China’s not going to be our future overlords, then India certainly will be… we’d better start sucking up now.

Oscar Showdown, 2008

Chrismatica© my Oscar predicting mathematical formula has once again been put to use to assist others with various Oscar pools at various Oscar parties. Last year, with the categories below, Chrismatica© scored a perfect 100%.

As always: Remember, if you win, you owe me! And if you lose… well, you shouldn’t have been gambling in the first place.

Performance by an actor in a leading role
George Clooney in "Michael Clayton" Didn’t he just win?
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd” Sorry… no one wins for singing anymore… wait, did they ever?
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah" Nobody saw this film
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises" Nobody saw this film… but they heard good things…
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" The Academy loves it when actors bury themselves in a role and chew their way out. Miserable struggle + unhappy ending and misery = That is Oscar gold!

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" Three words: Ben Affleck’s brother. They made that mistake once, no more Affleck awards.
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War" One of the best actors of his generation… but he just won a few years back. Plus, no one saw this film.
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton" Who?
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild" I’m thinking there will be an old-school push, but Javier’s performance has got too much buzz. Hal is a close second.
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men" Stole the movie, note how no one else from this film was nominated…

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" She was nominated the last time she played this character and lost… why would they give it to her now?
Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose" Sing all you want… Oscar doesn’t pay up to singers.
Laura Linney in "The Savages" The Sandy Dennis of her generation: each role she plays is essentially the same character: herself. Nominated before and hasn’t won…
Ellen Page in "Juno" Breakout performance of the year! Made the movie! However, it’s a first nomination. That only works for supporting actress. Come back when you get a few more nominations…
Julie Christie in "Away from Her" Old Hollywood strikes back with one last stab with Julie. Old Hollywood is getting… well, old. Not too many chances left to leave their mark, so they’re counting on Julie.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" She won for playing Katherine Hepburn (The Aviator)—Cate, you do not want to be known as “the woman who only wins for roles in pants.” That’s Hillary Swank’s territory…
Saoirse Ronan in "Atonement" Heartbreaking performance… or so I’m told. Who saw this? Anyone…? Anyone…?
Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone" Four words: Directed by Ben Affleck
Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton" She’s good… but not that good.
Ruby Dee in "American Gangster" The Academy loves it when performers who were all but gone, come back and steal a movie away from Russell Crowe and Denzel Washington.


Best animated feature film of the year
"Ratatouille" Michael Eisner may be gone, but everyone’s hatred of Disney remains…
"Surf's Up" Surfing Penguins. Seriously. Surfing Penguins… Apparently, this was thought up by the Marketing Dept. “Studies show kids like penguins and surfing…” They managed to kill two genres with one stone and it still got nominated… slow year.
"Persepolis" Black and white. Very dramatic. Intense, true story… plus, they get to piss off The Mouse! GOLD!!!


Achievement in directing
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" Julian Schnabel The what and the what-what? Is this a joke? Seriously, why is this even here?
"Juno" Jason Reitman First nomination. Look for this to win in production design and possibly writing…
"Michael Clayton" Tony Gilroy Eh…
"There Will Be Blood" Paul Thomas Anderson This film was 30 minutes too long—maybe if the director had paid attention to that fact, it might have a chance.
"No Country for Old Men" Joel Coen and Ethan Coen Bottom line: they won the Director’s Guild Award. Consider this a lock.

Best motion picture of the year
"Juno" Cute, enjoyable film. That would be great if it were 1934 (then again, in 1934 a comedy about a pregnant teen would not have been made…)
"Atonement" Ah, depressing. Based on a book. The Academy loves this stuff as it makes them feel superior. Plus, it is a period piece. But did anyone see this?
"Michael Clayton" Yeah, yeah, lawyers are bad… tell us something we don’t know.
"There Will Be Blood" And there will be… for this film on Oscar night. Learn to edit P.T.
"No Country for Old Men" The last time the Coen brothers were nominated for Best Picture they were up against The English Patient and Academy love-child Saul Zaentz. This year there’s nothing to stop them. Is it their best work? Since when has the Academy Awards been about best work?