It’s a heady time for Chrismatica©, my patented* mathematical formula for picking Oscar™ winners. For two years running, I have a 100% accuracy in picking the top six categories.
The nominees have been carefully scrutinized, the numbers have been crunched, awards shows have been watched… and the results are in!
REMEMBER:Bet at your own risk. Chrismatica©, its parent company and subsidiaries are not responsible for any losses. However, if you win based on my predictions, feel free to kick down a few bucks.
And the Oscar™ goes to…
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Terrence Howard – HUSTLE & FLOW. Who?
Joaquin Phoenix – WALK THE LINE. Johnny Cash hasn’t been dead long enough for us to realize that you didn’t do as good of a job impersonating a famous singer as Jamie Foxx did last year with Ray Charles.
David Strathairn – GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK. The title of the film says it all about his chances of winning.
Heath Ledger – BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN. An amazing performance, Heath’s best to date… but he’s made a LOT of crappy movies (TEN THINGS I HATE ABOUT YOU, A KNIGHT’S TALE to name two). One great performance does not an Oscar make (unless it’s for a Supporting Role, then it’s a lock).
Philip Seymour Hoffman – CAPOTE Played a real person, did an amazing job, told a compelling story and is arguably the finest actor of his generation. He is consistently great in everything he does. For this performance and his entire body of work: ‘Answered Prayers,’ indeed.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
(This was a tight race with a spread of 12 points between the highest and lowest score)
George Clooney – SYRIANA He gained 40 pounds for the role (that is considered “acting” by many), but he’s still too darn pretty…
Matt Dillon – CRASH Hey, it’s the guy from LITTLE DARLINGS! I’d say that he’s got it locked, but he also made HERBIE: FULLY LOADED this year and even I can’t forgive that…
William Hurt – A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE Is he still acting? More importantly, is he still dating Marlee Matlin? I don’t think anyone saw this movie. (Side note: my cousin used to date him… which still doesn’t improve his chances of winning, I’m just sayin’…)
Jake Gyllenhaal – BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN Here’s a guy who deserves an Oscar. Not necessarily for this role, but his body of work is amazingly solid for someone so young: DONNIE DARKO, OCTOBER SKY, and JARHEAD were all great performances. Then again he did make THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW and that was just wrong… (plus, too many people think he’s the guy from SPIDER MAN).
Paul Giamatti – CINDERELLA MAN No one saw this movie, but everyone remembers his performance in SIDEWAYS that didn’t even garner a nomination (he would have beating Foxx, his performance was that good). Now is the Academy’s turn to make it up to him, which is what the supporting category really seems to be about.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench – MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS She is British, which always bumps up a score, but Keira Knightley is too, so Dame Judi gets no points for that. Plus, she won for SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE and she was only on screen for 8 minutes total. She’s got to act another 120 minutes of brilliant work to make up for that. Plus, did anyone see this film?
Keira Knightley – PRIDE & PREJUDICE British actress in a Jane Austin novel… how many times can we go to this well? I didn’t think it was possible to get negative points…
Charlize Theron – NORTHCOUNTRY Ugly points usually score big, but didn’t she just win an Oscar for doing that (MONSTER)? Different girl, different well, same result…
Reese Witherspoon – WALK THE LINE Perky actress is now a serious actress! Good for her.
Felicity Huffman – TRANSAMERICA Actually, Felicity and Reese tied, but I’m pulling for Felicity: she’s doing the drag/ugly thing and the Academy LOVES that. Plus, she gives great acceptance speeches…
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams – JUNEBUG Who?
Catherine Keener – CAPOTE [see Amy Adams]
Frances McDormand – NORTH COUNTRY Who doesn’t love Frances? However, she has won before and few people saw this movie.
Rachel Weisz – THE CONSTANT GARDENER Technically, Rachel received a higher score than Michelle (dying in the film provides HUGE numbers), but I still can’t forgive her for THE MUMMY II…
Michelle Williams – BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN The Academy loves it when beautiful goes ugly, or in this case, “Plane Jane.” But her sublime performance in Brokeback was so real and so heartbreaking, that it is unforgettable—I’m betting the Academy will feel the same way.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
TIM BURTON'S CORPSE BRIDE Remember when Tim Burton made good movies? Must be a slow year for animated films (what, no CHICKEN LITTLE?”)
HOWL'S MOVING CASTLE The director won before… I’m still not sure why. I’m even more at a loss as to why this was nominated. This appears to be one of those I-don’t-understand-it-and-I’m-afraid-that-makes-me-look-stupid-so-I’ll-pretend-I-get-it-and-nominate-it things. Just because it’s a foreign film doesn’t make it good (do you hear that Pedro Almodóvar?)
WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT Forget about the cheese Gromit, you and Wallace are getting the gold. Tim Burton must be embarrassed to have CORPSE BRIDE up against such a fantastic film. Two Oscar winning shorts by the same creative team will win out.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
CAPOTE [See Brokeback]
CRASH [See Brokeback]
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK. That George Clooney sure is pretty, isn’t he? Also see Brokeback…MUNICH Steven returns to his favorite well again… good film, but not good enough.
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN It’s all Ang Lee—he won the Director’s Guild Award, and only on extremely rare occasions does that deviate. If you bet on one category, this is the one.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
CAPOTE / GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK / MUNICH Three “base on a true story” plotlines does not bode well for these guys…
CRASH Has gotten some major play in the last few weeks… sadly, balloting closed for the Academy two weeks ago. In fact, I didn’t even put that in my calculations.
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN It is Brokeback’s award to lose.
*patent pending… (when I get around to applying for it).
** As well as Best Animated Film, but no one would refer to that as a “top category”