Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Oscar Showdown, 2008


Chrismatica© my Oscar predicting mathematical formula has once again been put to use to assist others with various Oscar pools at various Oscar parties. Last year, with the categories below, Chrismatica© scored a perfect 100%.

As always: Remember, if you win, you owe me! And if you lose… well, you shouldn’t have been gambling in the first place.

Performance by an actor in a leading role
George Clooney in "Michael Clayton" Didn’t he just win?
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd” Sorry… no one wins for singing anymore… wait, did they ever?
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah" Nobody saw this film
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises" Nobody saw this film… but they heard good things…
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" The Academy loves it when actors bury themselves in a role and chew their way out. Miserable struggle + unhappy ending and misery = That is Oscar gold!

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" Three words: Ben Affleck’s brother. They made that mistake once, no more Affleck awards.
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War" One of the best actors of his generation… but he just won a few years back. Plus, no one saw this film.
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton" Who?
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild" I’m thinking there will be an old-school push, but Javier’s performance has got too much buzz. Hal is a close second.
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men" Stole the movie, note how no one else from this film was nominated…

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" She was nominated the last time she played this character and lost… why would they give it to her now?
Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose" Sing all you want… Oscar doesn’t pay up to singers.
Laura Linney in "The Savages" The Sandy Dennis of her generation: each role she plays is essentially the same character: herself. Nominated before and hasn’t won…
Ellen Page in "Juno" Breakout performance of the year! Made the movie! However, it’s a first nomination. That only works for supporting actress. Come back when you get a few more nominations…
Julie Christie in "Away from Her" Old Hollywood strikes back with one last stab with Julie. Old Hollywood is getting… well, old. Not too many chances left to leave their mark, so they’re counting on Julie.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" She won for playing Katherine Hepburn (The Aviator)—Cate, you do not want to be known as “the woman who only wins for roles in pants.” That’s Hillary Swank’s territory…
Saoirse Ronan in "Atonement" Heartbreaking performance… or so I’m told. Who saw this? Anyone…? Anyone…?
Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone" Four words: Directed by Ben Affleck
Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton" She’s good… but not that good.
Ruby Dee in "American Gangster" The Academy loves it when performers who were all but gone, come back and steal a movie away from Russell Crowe and Denzel Washington.


Best animated feature film of the year
"Ratatouille"
Michael Eisner may be gone, but everyone’s hatred of Disney remains…
"Surf's Up" Surfing Penguins. Seriously. Surfing Penguins… Apparently, this was thought up by the Marketing Dept. “Studies show kids like penguins and surfing…” They managed to kill two genres with one stone and it still got nominated… slow year.
"Persepolis" Black and white. Very dramatic. Intense, true story… plus, they get to piss off The Mouse! GOLD!!!


Achievement in directing
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" Julian Schnabel The what and the what-what? Is this a joke? Seriously, why is this even here?
"Juno" Jason Reitman First nomination. Look for this to win in production design and possibly writing…
"Michael Clayton" Tony Gilroy Eh…
"There Will Be Blood" Paul Thomas Anderson This film was 30 minutes too long—maybe if the director had paid attention to that fact, it might have a chance.
"No Country for Old Men" Joel Coen and Ethan Coen Bottom line: they won the Director’s Guild Award. Consider this a lock.

Best motion picture of the year
"Juno" Cute, enjoyable film. That would be great if it were 1934 (then again, in 1934 a comedy about a pregnant teen would not have been made…)
"Atonement" Ah, depressing. Based on a book. The Academy loves this stuff as it makes them feel superior. Plus, it is a period piece. But did anyone see this?
"Michael Clayton" Yeah, yeah, lawyers are bad… tell us something we don’t know.
"There Will Be Blood" And there will be… for this film on Oscar night. Learn to edit P.T.
"No Country for Old Men" The last time the Coen brothers were nominated for Best Picture they were up against The English Patient and Academy love-child Saul Zaentz. This year there’s nothing to stop them. Is it their best work? Since when has the Academy Awards been about best work?

6 comments:

durante said...

You are so good with the movies. I wish I could keep up. But now I know where to go.

I'll have to check out that Juno. Everybody is talking about it.

durante vita

Chris said...

I calls 'em as I see 'em...

Run, don't walk to see Juno. It really is a fantastic film--excellent cast and great script. A very enjoyable film.

JPRESTI said...

Dear Chrismatica,

Why did Jamie Fox beat Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland) or Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda) in a singing role?

And I am still a little bitter that Jennifer Hudson (a lovely girl and wonderful singer) beat Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal) last year. Again with the singing.

Jp

Chris said...

Good point, jpresti...

First, Hudson won for Supporting Actress--entirely different scenario for that category. "Steal the movie = steal the Oscar". Also, Dream Girls WAS Hudson's movie.

Second, Foxx was not singing as much as he was playing the beloved Ray Charles. And, yes, he chewed the hell out of the scenery.

Third, the French chick is an actress no one has heard of... First timers rarely pay off.

My prediction stands.

Michele said...

Chrismatica, you should win an award for Most Entertaining Oscar Predictions. You make me smile.

Once again, I haven't seen any of these movies, as none of them are out on DVD yet (are they?). However, "Sweeney Todd" is finally at the theatre here this week and I cannot wait. I love Johnny Depp almost as much as I love my husband. I hope Johnny wins for his singing. I was disappointed when Joaquin didn't win for his singing, so am keeping my fingers crossed for the lovely, sexy Johnny. DDL will be hard to beat, though.

P.S. I think "Ratatouille" will win even though "Persepolis" is the "artier" movie. More kids saw the Rat movie and Oscar must think of the children. ;-)

Michele said...

P.S.S. "No Country For Old Men." When Obama ends up running against McCain in the general election, this could be his tag line!